Research Article

Usama Hanif

Published on : December 2025 | Volume : 2 Issue : 2

Abstract :

Waterborne transmission remains a major public health challenge in many settings, particularly where shared drinking water sources are common. Contaminated water containers can act as environmental reservoirs and amplify outbreaks of enteric pathogens such as Escherichia coli. However, the relative impact of environmental cleaning and water filtration strategies is difficult to quantify using field studies alone. This study developed an agent-based model to simulate E. coli transmission through shared water jugs in a community setting. The model included individual movement between locations, environmental contamination dynamics, bacterial shedding, and dose-dependent infection risk. We evaluated multiple intervention scenarios, including increased cleaning frequency of water containers and varying levels of filter coverage. Each scenario was simulated over 50 stochastic iterations to account for variability in outbreak dynamics. Outcomes included attack rate, peak number of infected individuals, time to peak, epidemic duration, and outbreak probability. Increased cleaning frequency substantially reduced attack rate and shortened epidemic duration. Higher filter coverage further decreased peak infection levels. The combined intervention scenario showed the strongest reduction in outbreak size and transmission intensity. Sensitivity analyses indicated that cleaning interval and infection probability were the most influential parameters driving outbreak outcomes. These findings highlight the critical role of environmental hygiene in controlling waterborne outbreaks. Agent-based modeling provides a useful framework for evaluating intervention strategies in complex transmission systems. The results support prioritizing regular cleaning and improved filtration in shared water environments to reduce the risk of large outbreaks.